Withdrawal Strategy Simulator
Test different withdrawal strategies against historical market data spanning 100 years.
Retirement Setup
$
$
30 yrs
7.0%
Strategy
97%
historical success rate
across 30-yr periods since 1926
First Year Withdrawal
$40K
4.0% of portfolio
Final Balance
$2.06M↑
Portfolio survived
Duration
30 years
Retirement length
Portfolio Balance Over 30 Years
Historical Context
Based on actual returns 1926–2024, 60/40 stock/bond allocation
97%
Success rate
3%
Failure rate
30yr
Horizon tested
The classic Trinity Study (1998) found the 4% rule succeeded ~96% of the time over 30-year periods. Extending to 40+ years or using a higher withdrawal rate significantly reduces success probability.
Not financial advice. Withdrawal projections use historical returns and mathematical models. They do not guarantee future portfolio survival. Sequence-of-returns risk is real. Terms · Methodology